Source Attribution of a Forensic DNA Profile Table 1
July 2000 - Volume 2 - Number 3 |
Source Attribution of a Forensic DNA Profile
Table 1
Random Match Probability Thresholds for Source Attribution at Various Population Sizes and Confidence Levels
Sample Size (N) |
Confidence Levels | |||
0.90 | 0.95 | 0.99 | 0.999 | |
2 | 5.1 × 10-2 | 2.5 × 10-2 | 5.0 × 10-3 | 5.0 × 10-4 |
3 | 3.5 × 10-2 | 1.7 × 10-2 | 3.3 × 10-3 | 3.3 × 10-4 |
4 | 2.6 × 10-2 | 1.3 × 10-2 | 2.5 × 10-3 | 2.5 × 10-4 |
5 | 2.1 × 10-2 | 1.0 × 10-2 | 2.0 × 10-3 | 2.0 × 10-4 |
6 | 1.7 × 10-2 | 8.5 × 10-3 | 1.7 × 10-3 | 1.7 × 10-4 |
7 | 1.5 × 10-2 | 7.3 × 10-3 | 1.4 × 10-3 | 1.4 × 10-4 |
8 | 1.3 × 10-2 | 6.4 × 10-3 | 1.3 × 10-3 | 1.3 × 10-4 |
9 | 1.2 × 10-2 | 5.7 × 10-3 | 1.1 × 10-3 | 1.1 × 10-4 |
10 | 1.1 × 10-2 | 5.1 × 10-3 | 1.0 × 10-3 | 1.0 × 10-4 |
25 | 4.2 × 10-3 | 2.1 × 10-3 | 4.0 × 10-4 | 4.0 × 10-5 |
50 | 2.1 × 10-3 | 1.0 × 10-3 | 2.0 × 10-4 | 2.0 × 10-5 |
100 | 1.1 × 10-3 | 5.1 × 10-4 | 1.0 × 10-4 | 1.0 × 10-5 |
1 × 103 | 1.1 × 10-4 | 5.1 × 10-5 | 1.0 × 10-5 | 1.0 × 10-6 |
1 × 105 | 1.1 × 10-6 | 5.1 × 10-7 | 1.0 × 10-7 | 1.0 × 10-8 |
1 × 106 | 1.1 × 10-7 | 5.1 × 10-8 | 1.0 × 10-8 | 1.0 × 10-9 |
1 × 107 | 1.1 × 10-8 | 5.1 × 10-9 | 1.0 × 10-9 | 1.0 × 10-10 |
5 × 107 | 2.1 × 10-9 | 1.0 × 10-9 | 2.0 × 10-10 | 2.0 × 10-11 |
2.6 × 108 | 4.1 × 10-10 | 2.0 × 10-10 | 3.9 × 10-11 | 3.9 × 10-12 |
1 × 109 | 1.1 × 10-10 | 5.1 × 10-11 | 1.0 × 10-11 | 1.0 × 10-12 |
5 × 109 | 2.1 × 10-11 | 1.0 × 10-11 | 2.0 × 10-12 | 2.0 × 10-13 |