Definition

Forcible rape, as defined in the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Program, is the carnal knowledge of a female forcibly and against her will. Assaults or attempts to commit rape by force or threat of force are also included; however, statutory rape (without force) and other sex offenses are excluded.

Trend

National Volume, Trends, and Rates

Marking the third consecutive year of increase, the UCR Program's estimate of female forcible rapes for 2002 was 95,136 offenses. This estimate was 4.7 percent higher than the 2001 approximation, and it was 2.1 percent higher than the offense estimate for 1998. However, the volume of forcible rapes in 2002 was 10.3 percent below the 1993 estimate. (See Table 1.)

The UCR Program has traditionally collected rape data only for female victims. The rape rates listed above and in subsequent tables are based upon estimates of the total U.S. population. In this narrative, however, the rape rate is based on the 2002 estimate of the Nation's female population provided by the U. S. Bureau of the Census. That calculation yielded a rate of 64.8 forcible rapes per 100,000 females, which was an increase of 3.5 percent from the 2001 rate of 62.6. In comparison with the rates of 5 and 10 years ago, the 2002 female forcible rape rate was 3.9 percent below the 1998 rate of 67.5, and it was 19.4 percent below the 1993 estimate of 80.4 per 100,000 females.

Community Types

The UCR Program aggregates data for three types of communities: Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), cities outside metropolitan areas, and rural counties. (For a detailed explanation of the composition of these community types, see Appendix III.) During 2002, the estimated rate of female forcible rapes increased for all community types. The greatest increase was seen in cities outside MSAs, where forcible rapes occurred at the estimated rate of 75.9 per 100,000 females, an increase of 12.1 percent since 2001. MSAs had an estimated rate of 66.5 forcible rapes for each 100,000 segment of the female population, a 3.3 percent increase over the prior year's estimate. In rural counties, female rapes occurred at an estimated rate of 46.8 per 100,000 females, up 6.8 percent from 2001. (Based on Table 2.)

Regional Offense Trends and Rates

The UCR Program aggregates statistics for four regions within the United States: the Northeast, the Midwest, the South, and the West. A map delineating these regions is published in Appendix III. By region, the data on female forcible rapes reflected the following:

The Northeast

The Northeast had an estimated 13.5 percent of the Nation's forcible rapes during 2002, the lowest proportion of the four regions. Additionally, this group of states had the only decline in the estimated rate of 46.4 forcible rapes per 100,000 females. This figure was the lowest regional rate, and it reflected a 5.5 percent decrease from the Northeast's 2001 estimate.

The Midwest

Approximately 25.3 percent of the Nation's estimated forcible rapes occurred in the Midwestern states. In 2002, this region had an estimated 72.7 forcible rape rate per 100,000 females, which was an increase of 5.4 percent over 2001 estimates.

The South

The Nation's most populous region, the South, had the highest percentage of female rapes—37.5 percent. During 2002, the Southern states experienced an estimated 2.1 percent increase over the 2001 figure for the rate of forcible rapes, 67.9 for every 100,000 females.

The West

Of the Nation's rape offenses, an estimated 23.7 percent occurred in the Western Region during 2002. The West also had an increase of 3.2 percent in the rate of forcible rapes, with 67.4 rapes per 100,000 females. (Based on Table 4.)

Offense Analysis

The UCR Program counts each offense in which a female of any age is forcibly raped or upon whom an assault to rape or attempt to rape is made. Of the total rapes reported for 2002, 91.0 percent were classified as rapes, and the remainder were attempts. (See Table 19.) The UCR Program classifies all sex offenses (except forcible rape) as Part II offenses and, as such, collects only arrest data, which are presented in an aggregated total. (See Appendix II.) Consequently, statutory rapes of female victims where no force is used and the victim is under the age of consent are included in sex offenses. Sexual attacks on males are classified as assaults or sex offenses depending on the nature of the crime and the extent of injury.

Clearances

Forcible rapes had a national clearance rate of 44.5 percent during 2002. Collectively, the Nation's cities cleared 43.4 percent of forcible rapes, with clearance rates ranging from 40.4 percent in cities with populations of 25,000 to 49,999 to 46.2 percent in those with fewer than 10,000 residents. The Nation's largest cities, those with populations of 250,000 and over, cleared 44.0 percent. Rural counties cleared 49.8 percent of the reported forcible rapes in their communities, and suburban counties cleared 47.0 percent. (See Table 25.)

The Northeast recorded the highest regional rape clearance rate, 50.7 percent of reported offenses. In 2002, the South cleared 48.4 percent of female rapes; the West, 40.1 percent; and the Midwest, 39.2 percent. (See Table 26.)

Clearances and Juveniles

When an offender under the age of 18 is cited to appear in juvenile court or before other juvenile authorities, the UCR Program records the incident as a clearance by arrest even though a physical arrest may not have occurred. In addition, according to Program definitions, clearances involving both adult and juvenile offenders are classified as adult clearances.

In 2002, juveniles made up 12.0 percent of the total clearances for forcible rape. Among the Nation's cities, 11.6 percent of forcible rape clearances were the result of a juvenile arrest or an exceptional clearance. The highest percentage of forcible rape clearances involving only juvenile offenders, 16.0 percent, were reported in cities with populations of 10,000 to 24,999; the lowest percentage of juvenile clearances, 9.1 percent, were reported by agencies in cities with more than 250,000 in population. During 2002, 13.8 percent of forcible rape clearances in rural counties involved only persons under age 18, as did 12.8 percent of those in suburban counties. (See Table 28.)

Arrests

Arrests for forcible rape in 2002 were estimated at 28,288. (See Table 29.) During 2002, 16.7 percent of all forcible rape arrests were of persons under the age of 18 and 46.1 percent were of persons under the age of 25. Adults (over the age of 18) made up 83.3 percent of arrests. (See Tables 38 and 41.) By race, 63.4 percent of arrestees for this offense were white, 34.0 percent were black, and the remainder were of other races. (See Table 43.) Regarding juvenile forcible rape arrests, 62.0 percent of the juvenile arrestees were white, 36.0 percent were black, and the remainder were of other races. (See Table 43.)

Two-, 5-, and 10-year trend data showed that the number of forcible rape arrests in 2002 was 1.8 percent higher than the 2001 arrest total; however, that figure was 7.2 percent lower than the 1998 total and 26.0 percent lower than the number of rape arrests in 1993. In 2002, arrests of adults for forcible rape increased 2.5 percent from the 2001 number, and arrests of juveniles decreased 1.4 percent when compared to 2001 arrest totals. Comparing the 2002 estimates with those of 5 years ago showed that adult arrests fell 5.8 percent and juvenile arrests dropped 13.8 percent from 1998. Adult arrests for forcible rape in 2002 declined 25.9 percent, and juvenile arrests decreased 26.5 percent when compared to arrests in 1993. (See Tables 32, 34, and 36.)

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Figure 2.8

Forcible Rape

Percent Change from 1998

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