National Threat Assessments

On Friday, February 7, 2003, the Homeland Security threat condition was elevated from yellow ("elevated") to orange ("high"). According to a White House publication, the "high" level condition indicates a "high risk of terrorist attacks." Higher Threat Conditions indicate a greater risk of a terrorist act -- with risk including both probability and gravity. The announcement provoked questions about the Advisory System -- such as, who determines when to elevate the threat level and what are the factors considered when evaluating the threat level.

On April, 16, 2003, the Homeland Security threat condition was lowered from orange ("high") to yellow ("elevated").

Background: PD-3

The Presidential Directive 3 (PD-3), signed into law by President George Bush in March 2002, created the color-coded Homeland Security Advisory System (HSAS), in an effort to improve coordination and cooperation among all levels of government and the general public in the fight against terrorism. The system was intended to create a common vocabulary -- a common understanding of the meaning behind the changes in threat conditions. This ensures that the warning information reaches the appropriate federal, state, and local authorities and, most importantly, the American public.

Prior to the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks, there were already various federal alert systems in the United States -- each tailored to address a unique sector of society, such as transportation, defense, and agriculture. The FBI's Kevin Giblin participated in an online discussion with the public about the HSAS in March 2002. During the discussion, Giblin described the system as, "the 'umbrella' for the many existing systems within and without government." The HSAS provides a national framework for these various alert systems, and allows both the government and private citizens to communicate and understand the nature and degree of terrorist threats affecting them. The HSAS also has the flexibility to apply Threat Conditions nationally, regionally, by sector, or to a potential target.

How Threat Conditions are Assessed

The National Terrorism Threat Level is assigned by the Attorney General in consultation with the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, based on an ongoing analysis of the threat. The FBI's Counterterrorism Division maintains daily interaction with the Office of Homeland Security and with the intelligence community in the exchange, monitoring, and resolution of threat information. There are several factors considered when assigning a specific Threat Condition. Among them:

• Is the threat credible?
• Is the threat corroborated?
• Is the threat specific and/or imminent?
• How grave is the threat?

The Director of the Central Intelligence Agency and the Attorney General ensure that a continuous flow of threat assessments and reports are provided to the President, Vice President, Assistant to the President and Chief of Staff, the Assistant to the President for Homeland Security, and the Assistant to the President for National Security Affairs. Whenever possible, these threat assessments and reports will be reviewed and commented upon by a wider interagency community.